WEEK 31 / JUL 27–31 · SUNDAY REVALIDATEDResearch selected.
Research selected.
Timing still decides.
01 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
One paper position entered. Two names still waiting.
BAC, RTX, and PANW remain the low, moderate, and aggressive slate after Sunday revalidation. The book may deploy up to 75% of the account and keeps 25% in cash. A fresh weekday check remains mandatory; a failed name is removed before its same-tier alternate can be considered.
- The three primary candidates (BAC low, RTX moderate, PANW aggressive) were independently re-verified against company IR/SEC filings and third-party earnings calendars; all prices, financial figures, and event-clean-window claims check out with zero material corrections required.
- One event-clean replacement was sourced per tier from the supplied screen: JPM (low), LMT (moderate), and CRWD (aggressive) - each confirmed via IR/earnings-calendar sources to have no earnings or other binary corporate event between July 27-31, 2026.
- FOMC meeting dates (July 28-29, 2026) and the absence of a Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting were confirmed directly against the Federal Reserve's own July 2026 calendar.
- Eight screened names were rejected: five for in-window earnings/binary-event conflicts (AAPL, XOM, CVX, ABBV, HOOD) and three for broken or deeply negative technical trend inconsistent with a long-only thesis (MU, GOOGL, ORCL).
02 / CAPITAL PLAN
Three quarters deployed. One quarter held back.
Sizing uses each entry-range midpoint, the candidate notional ceiling, and its maximum-loss ceiling. Fractional quantities are truncated—not rounded up.
| Tier / symbol | Entry range | Qty | Notional | Invalidation | Target | Max loss | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW / BAC | $61.00–$62.50 | 5.668016 | $350.00 | $60.20 | $64.50 | $8.79 | 1.77 |
| MODERATE / RTX | $205.50–$212.00 | 1.257485 | $262.50 | $201.50 | $222.00 | $9.12 | 1.83 |
| AGGRESSIVE / PANW | $304.00–$320.00 | 0.440705 | $137.50 | $295.50 | $340.00 | $7.27 | 1.70 |
03 / PROPOSED PLANS
The locked-universe candidates
BACBank of America
- ENTRY
- $61.00–$62.50
- TARGET
- $64.50
- INVALIDATION
- $60.20
- MAX HOLD
- 6 sessions
Why it passed
Post-earnings trend continuation in a mega-cap bank whose Q2 event risk is cleared (reported July 14, 2026), price is above rising 20- and 50-session averages, and ATR14 of 1.93% is the lowest-volatility profile among event-clean uptrending names in the screen. Peer read-through is strong: JPMorgan reported record revenue across every line of business with markets revenue up 35% y/y on war-driven volatility, indicating a supportive banking/trading backdrop into quarter three.
What breaks it
Banks are high-beta to the July 29 FOMC under a hawkish chair with inflation above target; a hawkish front-end repricing or an oil-driven inflation shock would hit financials with the tape. BAC is also 10.8% above its 50-day average, so a broad-market pullback gives back several sessions of gains quickly, and there is no company-specific catalyst inside the window to offset macro drift.
Expected path
Sideways-to-higher drift from the $61-62.50 shelf toward $64.00-64.50, with the rising 20-day (59.90) as trend support. Acceptable path includes a flat, low-volume consolidation through FOMC then a month-end push. Thesis is wrong on a decisive break of $60.20; exit on target, on invalidation, or by the sixth session regardless.
Evidence and event check
Bank of America released Q2 2026 results on July 14, 2026 with the release, supplemental filing, presentation and Form 8-K available via IR/SEC. Sector backdrop corroborated by JPMorgan's Q2 2026 8-K: net income $21.2B ($7.70/share), $16.9B excluding significant items, ROTCE 29%, reported revenue $57.3B, with reporting that markets revenue rose 35% y/y on Iran-war volatility.
Alpaca IEX daily bars as of 2026-07-24 close: close 62.05; +3.60% vs SMA20 (59.90); +10.83% vs SMA50 (55.99); 5d +1.26%, 20d +6.62%, 50d +22.75%; ATR14 1.93% of close; volume ratio 20d 1.02; trendScore 8.75.
Q2 2026 results released July 14, 2026 (BAC newsroom / Form 8-K); next quarterly report is October, outside the window. No scheduled company events July 27-31 identified. Ex-dividend timing not individually verified and must be re-checked at the Sunday gate.
RTXRTX Corporation
- ENTRY
- $205.50–$212.00
- TARGET
- $222.00
- INVALIDATION
- $201.50
- MAX HOLD
- 6 sessions
Why it passed
Post-earnings continuation with company event risk removed on July 23, 2026: Q2 sales $24.7B (+14% reported, +16% organic), adjusted EPS $1.89 (+21%), free cash flow $2.9B, backlog $289B (+22% y/y), and raised full-year 2026 adjusted sales, EPS and FCF guidance. Aerospace aftermarket plus defense demand is being reinforced by active Middle East hostilities and rising allied defense budgets, and ATR14 of 2.44% fits moderate-tier sizing.
What breaks it
The stock is +10.0% in five sessions and 8.5% above its 20-day average - buying an extended post-earnings gap invites mean reversion. A credible Iran de-escalation (the tape already rallied July 24 on easing tensions) would deflate the geopolitical premium in defense faster than fundamentals improve. Guidance is now high-bar, and the agreed sale of Blue Canyon Technologies plus program-level headlines can create noise without changing the thesis.
Expected path
Prefer a pullback or 1-2 session consolidation into $206-212 rather than chasing; then continuation toward $220-222 as post-earnings drift and defense flows persist. Invalidated on a close below $201.50, which would fill most of the earnings gap and break the short-term structure. Hard exit by the sixth session.
Evidence and event check
RTX Q2 2026 release (July 23): sales $24.7B up 14%, adjusted EPS $1.89 up 21%, operating cash flow $3.5B, FCF $2.9B, backlog $289B ($170B commercial / $119B defense), full-year adjusted sales raised to $95.0-96.0B and organic growth to 8-9%, adjusted EPS to $7.10-7.25; agreement to sell Blue Canyon Technologies for $620M.
Alpaca IEX daily bars as of 2026-07-24 close: close 212.855; +8.52% vs SMA20 (196.15); +14.31% vs SMA50 (186.22); 5d +10.02%, 20d +14.10%, 50d +19.48%; ATR14 2.44% of close; volume ratio 20d 1.44 (post-earnings participation); trendScore 11.90.
Q2 2026 earnings released pre-market July 23, 2026 (date pre-announced June 30, 2026); next report late October, outside the window. No scheduled company events July 27-31 identified; the Blue Canyon divestiture is an agreement already disclosed in the Q2 release, not a pending binary. Ex-dividend timing to be verified at the Sunday gate.
PANWPalo Alto Networks
- ENTRY
- $304.00–$320.00
- TARGET
- $340.00
- INVALIDATION
- $295.50
- MAX HOLD
- 5 sessions
Why it passed
Defined-risk dip entry in an intact intermediate uptrend where the next company event sits outside the window (fiscal Q4 report August 24, 2026). Fiscal Q3 (reported June 2) delivered revenue $3.00B, +31% y/y, adjusted EPS $0.85 vs $0.80 expected, with stronger-than-expected fiscal Q4 guidance ($3.345-3.355B, +32%), and AI-driven cyber demand is the sector's documented tailwind. The screen shows a -9.7% five-session pullback while price remains 9.0% above a rising 50-day average after +50.2% over 50 sessions, which allows a small position with a stop just under the 50-day.
What breaks it
This is a momentum unwind, not a confirmed reversal: the stock has broken its 20-day, is roughly +91% year-to-date at a rich multiple, has disclosed insider selling, and CEO commentary on AI pricing has itself been a sell catalyst. If the cyber/AI-software complex keeps de-rating - plausible into FOMC and hyperscaler prints - the 50-day at 297 offers little support and a 5.2% ATR means the stop can be hit in a single session. No dividend or buyback support in the window.
Expected path
Stabilization in the $300-315 zone early week on lighter volume, then an attempt to reclaim $330 into month-end; target $340. Enter only inside $304-320 - no chasing above $320. Invalidated on a close below $295.50 (beneath the rising 50-day at 297.02), which converts the setup from pullback to trend break. Hard exit by the fifth session, well before the August 24 print.
Evidence and event check
Fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended April 30, 2026) results reported June 2, 2026: revenue $3.00B vs $2.94B expected and +31% y/y including $388M from CyberArk and Chronosphere, adjusted EPS $0.85 vs $0.80 expected, stronger-than-expected fiscal Q4 guidance of $3.345-3.355B (+32%). Management cites accelerating organic bookings from customers securing AI deployments.
Alpaca IEX daily bars as of 2026-07-24 close: close 323.785; -4.50% vs SMA20 (339.05) but +9.01% vs SMA50 (297.02); 5d -9.71%, 20d +10.52%, 50d +50.21%; ATR14 5.22% of close; volume ratio 20d 1.26; trendScore 14.27 (highest in screen). 52-week range 139.57-368.80; average daily volume ~6.1M shares supports fractional entry.
Next earnings August 24, 2026 after the close (third-party confirmed; to be re-verified against company IR before entry) - outside the window. Fiscal Q3 already reported June 2, 2026. Announced agreement to acquire Embrace Mobile on July 21, 2026, expected to close in fiscal Q1 2027, subject to customary conditions - small, non-binary for the equity. No dividend.
04 / REPLACEMENT BENCH
One substitute per tier. Never an extra position.
JPM JPMorgan Chase
Post-earnings continuation backup for the low tier: JPMorgan's Q2 2026 event risk is cleared (reported July 14, 2026) with the next print not until October 13, 2026, well outside the holding window. The bank posted record profitability with markets/trading tailwinds shared by BAC, and ATR14 of 2.07% keeps it in low-tier risk territory even though it is the mega-cap peer of the primary.
$345.00–$352.00STOP $339.00TARGET $363.00
LMT Lockheed Martin
Post-earnings continuation backup for the moderate tier: Lockheed Martin's Q2 2026 event risk is cleared (reported July 23, 2026) with sales of $20.1B (+11%), EPS of $7.94, a record $230.4B backlog, and raised full-year guidance, reinforced by the same Middle East/allied-defense-budget tailwind supporting the RTX primary but concentrated in missiles/space (THAAD) rather than aftermarket aerospace.
$560.00–$575.00STOP $545.00TARGET $615.00
CRWD CrowdStrike
Defined-risk dip-buy backup for the aggressive tier in cybersecurity/AI-security, diversifying the PANW primary's factor risk (endpoint/identity vs. network-security integration risk). Fiscal Q1 FY2027 (reported June 3, 2026) delivered record net new ARR ($256M) and free cash flow ($468M) with raised full-year guidance, and the next report is confirmed for September 2, 2026, well outside the window. A 4-for-1 split (effective July 2, 2026) explains the lower nominal price; the -9.76% five-session pullback inside a +34.2% 50-day uptrend mirrors the PANW setup.
$176.00–$182.00STOP $169.00TARGET $195.00
If a primary fails, Drew removes it before considering its replacement. BAC/JPM, RTX/LMT, and PANW/CRWD may not be stacked in the same tier.
05 / GATES + MONITORING
Research is not entry permission.
01Research + independent cross-checkPASS
02Alpaca paper account healthPASS
03Sunday revalidationPASS
04Monday opening validationPOSITION OPEN
05Final price, news, event, risk + duplicate-order checkPASS
Monitoring cadence
Sunday confirmed the calendar, material company news, trend, sources, broker health, sizing, correlations, and replacement status. Weekdays recheck the locked universe before the open and throughout the session. Drew may refuse a trade, cancel a stale intent, or exit a paper position when price, news, the expected path, or a global breaker violates the plan.
Drew is monitoring an open paper position.
The Alpaca paper account held 1 monitored position, $646.08 cash, and 1 reconciled order. Drew submitted no additional orders during this read-only status refresh.
- BAC last traded at $62.61 — above its locked entry range; Drew is monitoring the open paper position.
- RTX last traded at $218.05 — above its locked entry range; Drew waited.
- PANW last traded at $319.33 — above its locked entry range; Drew waited.
06 / REJECTIONS + CAVEATS
What Drew declined
AAPL
Falls inside the mega-cap earnings cluster (reports on/around July 30, 2026) - binary event conflict inside the July 27-31 holding window.
XOM
ExxonMobil confirmed via IR/BusinessWire to release Q2 2026 results before market open on Friday, July 31, 2026 - binary event inside the window.
CVX
Chevron is expected to release Q2 2026 results before market open on Friday, July 31, 2026 - binary event inside the window.
ABBV
AbbVie earnings scheduled for Friday, July 31, 2026 per the confirmed mega-cap/healthcare cluster - binary event inside the window.
HOOD
Robinhood earnings fall inside the July 28-30 cluster, and technicals are weak (-11.5% below SMA20, choppy 50-day trend) - both event and technical fail.
MU
No binary event identified in-window, but a -24.2% 20-day decline and negative trendScore (-5.36) indicate an active breakdown, not a qualifying dip-buy setup.
GOOGL
Negative trendScore (-8.25) with -6.9% 20-day and -17.4% 50-day returns; downtrend inconsistent with a long-only continuation or dip-buy thesis despite Q2 event risk being behind it.
ORCL
Steepest negative trendScore in the screen (-19.25) with -24.4% 20-day and -38.2% 50-day declines; trend-following long thesis is unsupported.
Caveats
- BAC's next ex-dividend record date was confirmed as September 4, 2026 (payment September 25, 2026) via an SEC 8-K, closing the prior week's open verification item - no dividend event falls inside July 27-31 for BAC.
- Sunday revalidation confirmed JPM's July 6 common-dividend record date and LMT's September 1 dividend record date. Neither creates an ex-dividend entry distortion inside Week 31.
- Sunday account refresh confirmed an active, unblocked Alpaca paper account with $1,000 cash and buying power, no positions, and no open orders. These facts must still be refreshed immediately before any entry.
- Replacements are alternates per tier, not additional positions: combining a replacement with its factor-correlated primary in the same week (e.g., JPM with BAC, LMT with RTX, CRWD with PANW) would duplicate sector/factor exposure and must be avoided when sizing the book.
- Geopolitical (Strait of Hormuz/Iran) and FOMC-driven volatility remain unhedged systematic risks common to all six names reviewed; short holding periods and hard invalidation levels are the primary mitigants, not diversification.
07 / POST-WEEK REVIEW
Friday will grade the bench—not rewrite it.
After Friday's close, Drew will compare every reserve and declined candidate with its original reason, entry range where one existed, target, invalidation, and completed daily price path. Original decisions remain frozen.
SCHEDULEDRuns automatically after the Friday close settles. Until then, no outcome verdict is displayed.
08 / SOURCE INVENTORY
Evidence links
01
RTX Reports Q2 2026 ResultsRTX
↗02Bank of America Increases Common Stock Dividend 14% to $0.32 Per ShareSEC EDGAR / Bank of America Corp
↗03JPMorganChase Announces Conference Calls to Review Quarterly 2026 EarningsJPMorganChase
↗04JPMorgan (JPM) Earnings Date & ReportInvesting.com
↗05Lockheed Martin Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsPR Newswire / Lockheed Martin
↗06Lockheed Martin Q2 2026 earnings beat, full-year outlook raisedYahoo Finance
↗07CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & ReportsTipRanks
↗08CrowdStrike Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial ResultsSEC EDGAR / CrowdStrike Holdings
↗09Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Earnings Dates, Call Summary & ReportsTipRanks
↗102026 July FOMC Meetings and Events CalendarBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
↗11ExxonMobil to Release Second Quarter 2026 Financial ResultsExxonMobil Investor Relations
↗12Earnings Preview: What To Expect From Chevron's ReportYahoo Finance / Barchart
↗13MDA Space to Acquire Raytheon's Blue Canyon Technologies for $620MGovConWire
↗14FOMC Meeting July 28-29: What to Know About Fed Decision DayCME Group Knowledge Hub
↗15Source record for newsroom.bankofamerica.comnewsroom.bankofamerica.com
↗16Source record for sec.govsec.gov
↗17Source record for usnews.comusnews.com
↗18Source record for rtx.comrtx.com
↗19Source record for cnbc.comcnbc.com
↗20Source record for paloaltonetworks.compaloaltonetworks.com
↗21Source record for cnbc.comcnbc.com
↗22Source record for simplywall.stsimplywall.st
↗23Bank of America Increases Common Stock DividendBank of America / SEC filing
↗24Press ReleasesPalo Alto Networks
↗25JPMorganChase Declares Common Stock DividendJPMorganChase
↗26Lockheed Martin Declares Third Quarter 2026 DividendLockheed Martin
↗27Press ReleasesCrowdStrike
↗Disclosures
Alpaca paper trading only. No real-money order is authorized by this evidence pack.
Candidates are research outputs, not individualized investment advice or promises of return.
A primary that fails Sunday or final entry validation must be removed; its same-tier replacement may be used only after passing every check.
Limit prices, fractional quantities, and loss estimates are planning values. Actual paper fills may differ or may not occur.
The July 28-29 FOMC meeting and geopolitical headlines can invalidate otherwise sound setups.
This revision targets 75% deployment and a 25% cash reserve. Preserving the researched stops raises planned downside to approximately 2.5% of starting equity.