DREWWEEKLY EVIDENCE PACK · PAPERDESKTOP ↗

WEEK 32 / AUG 3–7 · SATURDAY STAGED

Research selected.
Timing still decides.

01 / EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

One position carries. Two candidates are staged.

BAC is an existing paper position, TGT is the moderate-tier new primary, and MSFT is under a temporary no-chase block. The book preserves a $250 cash floor. Sunday revalidation and Monday's fresh regular-hours gate remain mandatory.

BAC carries into Week 32 as an existing low-tier paper position. It is monitored for hold or exit and cannot receive a duplicate entry.
TGT is the moderate-tier new primary, sized to preserve the $250 cash floor after accounting for BAC.
MSFT remains staged but temporarily blocked: Drew must see an orderly consolidation or controlled pullback and may not chase the post-earnings surge.
KO, CVX, and AMZN are same-tier standbys only. A standby cannot stack with its primary, and CVX still needs its official Q2 source rechecked.

PLANNED DEPLOYMENT$745.2574.9% OF ACCOUNT

CASH RESERVE$250.00$250.00 MINIMUM

MAX PLANNED LOSS$26.16BELOW $30.00 WEEKLY CAP

ORDER STATE0RECONCILED PAPER ORDERS

02 / CAPITAL PLAN

Existing exposure counted. One quarter held back.

Sizing uses each entry-range midpoint, the candidate notional ceiling, and its maximum-loss ceiling. Fractional quantities are truncated—not rounded up.

BAC$351.13TGT$256.62MSFT$137.50CASH$250.00

Tier / symbol	Entry range	Qty	Notional	Invalidation	Target	Max loss	R:R
LOW / BAC	$61.20–$62.50	5.668016	$351.13	$60.60	$64.80	$10.09	1.66
MODERATE / TGT	$141.80–$146.00	1.783321	$256.62	$137.90	$152.00	$10.70	1.35
AGGRESSIVE / MSFT	$452.00–$470.00	0.298264	$137.50	$443.00	$495.00	$5.37	1.89

03 / PROPOSED PLANS

The Saturday-staged universe

01 / LOWREVIEW PENDING SUNDAY

BACBank of America

ENTRY: $61.20–$62.50
TARGET: $64.80
INVALIDATION: $60.60
MAX HOLD: 5 sessions

Why it passed

Lowest-volatility uptrend name in the universe (ATR 1.9%) with earnings long past (Jul 14: EPS $1.21 vs $1.12 est, revenue $31.6B, NII +9%, 12th straight quarter of deposit growth). Close 61.98 sits just above SMA20 60.89 — a low-risk pullback entry in an established uptrend (+22.8% over 50 sessions).

What breaks it

Rate-cut expectations or a weak NFP flattening the curve compress NII expectations; banks stall when trading/IB tailwinds normalize; 5-day return is flat, so near-term momentum is absent.

Expected path

Base along the 20-day average then resume higher toward 64.80 over 3-5 sessions; macro data (ISM, NFP) are the main catalysts.

Evidence and event check

Q2 2026 (Jul 14): EPS $1.21 vs $1.12 consensus (+34% y/y); revenue $31.6B (+15%); NII $16B (+9%); provisions down y/y; efficiency ratio 59%; average deposits $2.02T, 12th consecutive quarterly increase; $8B returned to shareholders.

Alpaca IEX screen 2026-07-31: close 61.98, SMA20 60.89, SMA50 57.19, return50d +22.8%, ATR14 1.91% (lowest in screen), trendScore 7.76. Invalidation 60.60 sits just below SMA20.

PASS. Q2 2026 earnings released Jul 14, 2026. No scheduled BAC-specific events Aug 3-7.

02 / MODERATEPASS PENDING REVALIDATION

TGTTarget

ENTRY: $141.80–$146.00
TARGET: $152.00
INVALIDATION: $137.90
MAX HOLD: 6 sessions

Why it passed

Retail turnaround momentum with a clean event window. TGT closed 144.51, above SMA20 (137.34) and SMA50 (132.60), +5.7% over 5 sessions and +10.9% over 20. Next earnings are confirmed for Aug 19, 2026 — safely outside the Aug 3-7 hold. Trend continuation toward 152 while the tape rewards beaten-down retail recovering.

What breaks it

Prior quarter missed consensus ($1.465 vs $1.71 expected) and trailing-twelve-month earnings fell ~17% y/y, so the rally is multiple-driven and vulnerable to weak consumer data; a soft NFP or weak ISM Services could hit discretionary retail; pre-earnings de-risking may begin late in the window.

Expected path

Hold the 140-142 breakout area, then continue to 150-152 over 4-6 sessions; exit before any drift into the Aug 19 earnings run-up.

Evidence and event check

Next earnings confirmed Aug 19, 2026 with consensus EPS ~$2.21-2.27 for quarter ending Jul 31, 2026. Prior quarter EPS $1.465 missed the $1.71 consensus — recovery trade, not an earnings-quality trade; risk sized accordingly.

Alpaca IEX screen 2026-07-31: close 144.51, return5d +5.7%, return20d +10.9%, return50d +13.5%, SMA20 137.34, SMA50 132.60, ATR14 2.72%, trendScore 8.43. Notional trimmed to $215 so worst-case entry (146.00) to invalidation (137.90) stays under the $12 tier loss cap.

PASS. Next earnings Aug 19, 2026 (TipRanks; AlphaQuery lists 2026-08-19 for quarter ending 2026-07-31) — outside the Aug 3-7 window. No other scheduled binary events found.

03 / AGGRESSIVETEMPORARY NO-CHASE BLOCK

MSFTMicrosoft

ENTRY: $452.00–$470.00
TARGET: $495.00
INVALIDATION: $443.00
MAX HOLD: 7 sessions

Why it passed

Post-earnings continuation in the strongest confirmed mega-cap. FY26 Q4 (Jul 29): revenue $90.0B +18% vs $87.62B expected; EPS $4.74 adj vs $4.24 expected; Azure passed $100B annual revenue; Q1 guide $89.85-90.95B with steady capex and double-digit FY growth. Screen shows +21.7% 5-day on 1.54x volume — institutional accumulation after a blowout print. Buy consolidation of the gap for drift toward 495.

What breaks it

Price is 17% above SMA20 — extremely extended; post-earnings gaps can retrace hard if the momentum-unwind regime resumes; AI-infrastructure sentiment is fragile (July hedge-fund liquidation, data-center regulatory pushback); a hot NFP raising rate-path uncertainty hits long-duration tech first.

Expected path

2-4 sessions of high-level consolidation (450-470) digesting the earnings gap, then continuation toward 495; invalidation if the gap fills below 443.

Evidence and event check

FY26 Q4: revenue $90.0B (+18%) vs $87.62B LSEG consensus; adj EPS $4.74 vs $4.24 expected; net income $35.77B; Azure annual revenue >$100B; Microsoft Cloud $59.3B +27%; Q1 FY27 revenue guided $89.85-90.95B (+16-17%) with double-digit FY revenue and operating income growth.

Alpaca IEX screen 2026-07-31: close 464.70, return5d +21.7%, return20d +19.2%, SMA20 396.91, SMA50 399.34, ATR14 3.51%, volumeRatio20d 1.54, trendScore 12.72 (top of universe). Extension risk acknowledged in stop placement.

PASS. FY26 Q4 earnings released Jul 29, 2026 — behind us. No MSFT-specific scheduled events Aug 3-7. Macro NFP Aug 7 inside window (accepted, sized within $8 tier cap).

04 / REPLACEMENT BENCH

One substitute per tier. Never an extra position.

LOW REPLACEMENT

KO Coca-Cola

Defensive uptrend continuation. KO reported Q2 2026 on Jul 28 (net revenue +7% to $13.4B, organic +6%, unit cases +5%, comparable operating margin 35.6% vs 34.7%) and raised full-year guidance. Earnings risk is behind it; stock is in a steady uptrend (close 87.58 > SMA20 84.00 > SMA50 81.84) with low 2.4% ATR, suited to a tight-stop, low-tier hold through a macro-heavy week.

$86.20–$88.00STOP $85.50TARGET $91.50

MODERATE REPLACEMENT

CVX Chevron

Fresh post-earnings strength with event risk cleared. Q2 reported Jul 31: earnings $12.1B ($6.11/sh), record US production, worldwide production +20% y/y, $3B structural cost target hit six months early, plus a 20-year 2.67GW power agreement with Microsoft for a West Texas data center — an AI-power growth angle on top of energy cash flows. Uptrend intact (close 196.86 > SMA20 185.33).

$193.50–$199.00STOP $189.90TARGET $208.00

AGGRESSIVE REPLACEMENT

AMZN Amazon

Post-earnings breakout continuation. Q2 (Jul 30): net sales $200.6B +20%; AWS +37% — fastest in 18 quarters, $169B run rate; operating income $27.5B +43%; Q3 operating income guided $22.5-26.5B. Screen shows +17.0% 5-day on 2.84x volume; stock is within a few percent of its all-time high after a year of range-bound trade — a classic high-volume range escape.

$263.00–$274.00STOP $258.50TARGET $291.00

If a primary fails, Drew removes it before considering its replacement. BAC/KO, TGT/CVX, and MSFT/AMZN may not be stacked in the same tier.

05 / GATES + MONITORING

Research is not entry permission.

01Research + independent cross-checkPASS

02Alpaca paper account healthPASS

03Sunday revalidationPENDING

04Monday opening validationMONDAY PENDING

05Final price, news, event, risk + duplicate-order checkPENDING

Monitoring cadence

Saturday created durable paper intents but no broker orders. Sunday must confirm the calendar, material company news, trend, sources, broker health, sizing, correlations, and replacement status. Monday rechecks the locked universe in regular hours before any new paper entry can be submitted.

Monday entry validation has not run.

The paper account has one carried BAC position and zero open broker orders. TGT and MSFT are staged locally; neither is broker-submitted or approved.

BAC last traded at $0.00 — weekend its locked entry range; Drew is monitoring the open paper position.
TGT last traded at $0.00 — weekend its locked entry range; Drew waited.
MSFT last traded at $0.00 — weekend its locked entry range; Drew waited.

06 / REJECTIONS + CAVEATS

What Drew declined

AMD

Earnings confirmed Tuesday Aug 4, 2026 after market close (Wall Street Horizon/TipRanks/company announcement) — binary event inside the holding window. Also -8.8% 5-day and below both SMAs with 8.7% ATR.

PLTR

Earnings Monday Aug 3, 2026 after the close (Investrade/CNBC week-ahead calendars) — inside window. Negative trendScore (-4.61) as well.

CAT

Earnings Tuesday Aug 4, 2026 before the open (Investrade/Kiplinger) — inside window; plus analyst downgrade on data-center regulatory risk and -15.3% 20-day downtrend.

DIS

Earnings Wednesday Aug 5, 2026 (CNBC week-ahead calendar) — inside window.

UBER

Earnings Wednesday Aug 5, 2026 (CNBC week-ahead calendar) — inside window.

LLY

Earnings Wednesday Aug 5, 2026 (CNBC week-ahead calendar) — inside window; also below SMA20 on the screen.

Trend broken: -15.6% 20-day, 14.7% below SMA50, ATR 10.7% — stop distance cannot fit any tier loss cap at meaningful notional; memory-sentiment volatility flagged in week-ahead coverage.

META

Earnings disappointment last week (per IG week-ahead recap); -10.3% below SMA20, negative trend across horizons — no long setup.

CMG

+17.1% in 5 sessions with 4.0% ATR but no verified fresh catalyst located; chasing a vertical move without primary-source support fails the evidence standard.

GOOGL

Strong earnings per week-ahead coverage, but screen shows negative 20d/50d returns and price below SMA50 with negative trendScore — technical screen and fundamentals disagree; MSFT is the cleaner expression of the same theme.

Caveats

The independent completion call timed out. Missing receipt fields were reconstructed from official sources and deterministic local checks; this is disclosed rather than treated as a silent pass.
BAC is an existing position, not a new Week 32 buy. Its Sunday review may retain, reduce, or exit it; duplicate entry is blocked.
MSFT and AMZN have large post-earnings gaps. Neither may be chased merely because price is inside a numerical range.
Friday's Employment Situation can move every position. Holding periods, size, and invalidation levels must be reviewed against that event.

07 / POST-WEEK REVIEW

Friday will grade the bench—not rewrite it.

After Friday's close, Drew will grade each primary, standby, decline, entry decision, and no-trade reason against the frozen Week 32 evidence without rewriting the original call.

SCHEDULEDRuns automatically after the Friday close settles. Until then, no outcome verdict is displayed.

08 / SOURCE INVENTORY